09 — Long-term outlook
The long-term cost obligations from the city, depending on outcome
In short: renovating is cheaper than the city's own estimate for maintaining the arena as-is, but the full public commitment across all three governments tops $861.6M, before even counting bond interest that isn't public yet.
Same three-outcome breakdown as the front page. Here's the reasoning behind each number.
One more thing worth being upfront about: the $861.6M figure above is nominal. The state's $365M is being repaid through bonds, and bonds carry interest. What that interest will actually cost isn't public yet, so the true long-term price tag is higher than $861.6M, but by how much isn't something anyone can currently point to a number for.
Sources
- KATU, "Portland review in 2024 detailed $505M in needed Moda renovations as team asks for $600M." (KATU)
Renovation proceeds: $395M over 20 years. $120M construction + up to $275M maintenance, covered on the City's Commitment page.
No renovation, team stays: $482M over 20 years. The city's own consultant's number (Venue Solutions Group, 2024) for keeping the current 30-year-old arena running as-is. The underlying 2024 facility assessment actually identified $505M in total need; the commonly cited $482M figure appears to net out roughly $23M already addressed, though the city's own materials don't spell out that reconciliation explicitly.1
No renovation, team leaves: $402M over 20 years. This comes from a site critical of the current deal, which recalculated the maintenance figure by stripping out costs tied specifically to hosting an NBA team. Worth noting: this is the only one of the three numbers not sourced from a city-commissioned report; it's a third-party estimate built on different assumptions, so weigh it accordingly.
Everything above is the city's slice. Zooming out to the full public commitment, if the renovation proceeds: $365M from the state, $101.6M from the county, and $395M from the city over 20 years adds up to roughly $861.6M in total public money. None of it includes private capital from ownership.